Introduction

Strategic Forecasting and Scenario Planning training course equips leaders with practical tools to anticipate change, evaluate uncertainty, and improve strategic decision-making.

Organisations face growing uncertainty driven by geopolitical developments, economic fluctuations, technological disruption, and changing stakeholder expectations. Traditional planning approaches often struggle to account for the speed and complexity of these forces, making long-range decision-making increasingly challenging.

This training course provides structured methodologies that help leaders explore alternative futures, identify emerging opportunities and risks, and build more adaptable strategies. Participants will strengthen their ability to make informed decisions, challenge assumptions, and improve organisational readiness for future disruption.

Key focus areas of this Strategic Forecasting and Scenario Planning training course include:

Key Learning Outcomes

At the end of this Strategic Forecasting and Scenario Planning training course, participants will be able to:

Training Methodology

This training course combines expert-led instruction, interactive learning, group discussions, practical exercises, applied scenarios, and real-world examples. Participants work through realistic strategic challenges, apply forecasting and scenario-planning methodologies, and strengthen their ability to make informed decisions in uncertain environments.

Strategic Forecasting and Scenario Planning

Who Should Attend?

This Strategic Forecasting and Scenario Planning training course is designed for:

  • Strategy Directors
  • Corporate Planning Managers
  • Transformation Directors
  • Risk Management Leaders
  • Business Continuity Managers
  • Resilience Managers
  • Geopolitical Analysts
  • Government Affairs Directors
  • Investment Professionals
  • Board Members responsible for long-range planning

Course Outline

Day 1

Foundations of Strategic Foresight

  • Distinguishing forecasting, foresight, and scenario planning
  • The role of foresight in board governance and executive decision-making
  • Cognitive biases, mental models, and the limits of expert judgement
  • Frameworks: PESTLE, STEEP, the Cone of Plausibility, and the Three Horizons model
  • How leading institutions structure their foresight functions
Day 2

Horizon Scanning and Driver Analysis

  • Designing a horizon scanning programme: signals, trends, and discontinuities
  • Identifying drivers of change across geopolitical, economic, technological, and societal domains
  • Assessing impact, uncertainty, and interdependence
  • Structured analytical techniques: key assumptions check, analysis of competing hypotheses
  • Working with open source intelligence and expert elicitation
Day 3

Scenario Construction Methodologies

  • The intuitive logics, probabilistic, and morphological approaches
  • Two by two matrices and the GBN scenario method
  • Building internally consistent, plausible, and decision-relevant scenarios
  • Stress testing strategy against scenario sets
  • Constructing a scenario set for a contested geopolitical region
Day 4

Wargaming, Red Teaming, and Decision Support

  • Wargaming for strategic decisions: design, facilitation, and exploitation
  • Red teaming and alternative analysis
  • Pre-mortems, devil's advocacy, and structured challenge
  • Communicating uncertainty to boards and executive committees
  • Facilitating a strategic decision wargame
Day 5

Embedding Foresight in the Organisation

  • Linking foresight to strategy, ERM, capital planning, and resilience
  • Indicators, triggers, and early warning systems
  • Building an enduring foresight capability: governance, talent, and process
  • Reporting foresight outputs to senior stakeholders
  • Personal action planning: applying foresight in the participant's organisation

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FAQs

Forecasting attempts to predict future developments based on available data and trends. Foresight explores possible future developments by examining emerging signals, uncertainties, and drivers of change. Scenario planning develops multiple plausible future environments to help organisations prepare for uncertainty and improve decision-making.

Scenario planning helps leaders evaluate how different future developments could affect organisational objectives, investments, and operations. By considering multiple possibilities rather than relying on a single forecast, organisations can improve resilience, strengthen preparedness, and make more informed strategic decisions.

Participants examine geopolitical trends, regional developments, economic shifts, technological changes, and societal factors that influence future outcomes. The course provides practical approaches for analysing uncertainty and incorporating geopolitical considerations into strategic planning and risk management processes.

Horizon scanning enables organisations to identify emerging issues, trends, opportunities, and risks before they become mainstream concerns. This supports proactive planning, improves strategic awareness, and helps leaders respond more effectively to changes in the external environment.
The course explores how foresight outputs can support strategic planning, enterprise risk management, resilience initiatives, capital allocation decisions, and governance processes. Participants learn how to establish practical mechanisms that embed long-term thinking into organisational decision-making.

This course is highly valuable for executives, strategy leaders, corporate planners, risk professionals, resilience specialists, policy analysts, investment professionals, and board members responsible for long-range planning and organisational preparedness. It is particularly relevant for organisations operating in environments characterised by uncertainty, disruption, and rapid change.

GRC Academy training courses are delivered in leading international business destinations, including London, Amsterdam, and Dubai. Sessions are hosted in carefully selected four- and five-star business hotels with professional meeting facilities that support focused learning, interaction, comfort, and confidentiality.

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GRC Academy provides both online and in-person options for all our training courses. Participants may join interactive virtual sessions or attend scheduled courses in major international locations, allowing them to select the option that best suits their professional commitments and availability.

GRC Academy develops customised in-house training courses that address each organisation’s strategic priorities, operational environment, and workforce capability requirements. Our team works closely with clients to tailor the course content, learning outcomes, and practical emphasis.

These tailored courses are designed to strengthen organisational capability, improve team performance, and support measurable and sustainable outcomes. For customised in-house training enquiries, please contact the GRC Academy Customer Service team at [email protected]

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